论文标题

通过级联的推断与扩展的入院级别的有效共形预测

Efficient Conformal Prediction via Cascaded Inference with Expanded Admission

论文作者

Fisch, Adam, Schuster, Tal, Jaakkola, Tommi, Barzilay, Regina

论文摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的保形预测方法(CP),我们旨在确定一组有希望的预测候选者 - 代替单个预测。该集合可以保证具有很高可能性的正确答案,并且非常适合许多开放式分类任务。在标准的CP范式中,预测的集合通常可能很大,并且获得昂贵。这在正确答案不是唯一的设置中尤其普遍,并且可能的答案总数很高。我们首先扩展了CP正确性标准,以允许提供其他,推断的“可允许”答案,该答案可以大大减少预测设置的大小,同时仍提供有效的性能保证。其次,我们通过将预测级联反应摊销成本,在这种级联级联中,我们通过使用逐步使用更强大的分类器来积极地促成不可行的标签 - 同时仍然提供有效的性能保证。我们证明了我们方法在自然语言处理和药物发现计算化学方面的多种应用的经验有效性。

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high probability, and is well-suited for many open-ended classification tasks. In the standard CP paradigm, the predicted set can often be unusably large and also costly to obtain. This is particularly pervasive in settings where the correct answer is not unique, and the number of total possible answers is high. We first expand the CP correctness criterion to allow for additional, inferred "admissible" answers, which can substantially reduce the size of the predicted set while still providing valid performance guarantees. Second, we amortize costs by conformalizing prediction cascades, in which we aggressively prune implausible labels early on by using progressively stronger classifiers -- again, while still providing valid performance guarantees. We demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our approach for multiple applications in natural language processing and computational chemistry for drug discovery.

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