论文标题

基于机器学习的临床预测建模 - 临床医生实用指南

Machine learning-based clinical prediction modeling -- A practical guide for clinicians

论文作者

Kernbach, Julius M., Staartjes, Victor E.

论文摘要

在大数据的新兴时代,较大的可用临床数据集和计算进步引发了人们对基于机器学习的方法的极大兴趣。在过去的几年中,与机器学习或人工智能有关的手稿数量已成倍增加。随着分析机器学习工具很容易供临床医生使用,对于临床医生,调查人员,审阅者和编辑者来说,对关键概念和分析陷阱的认识越来越多,他们即使是临床领域的专家,有时甚至没有足够的能力来评估机器学习方法。在第一部分中,我们提供了有关机器学习的一般原理的解释,以及成功基于机器学习的预测建模所需的分析步骤 - 这是本系列的重点。在进一步的部分中,我们回顾了重新采样,过度拟合和模型的通用性以及功能降低和选择的重要性(第二部分),模型评估的策略,对普通警告的报告和讨论的策略以及其他意义上的重要点(第三部分),以及提供分类的实践指南(第IV部分)和回归模型(部分V),并具有完整的编码管道。需要进行方法论上的严格和清晰度以及对机器学习方法内部运作的基本推理的理解,否则,尽管有强大的分析工具,否则预测性应用并未得到很好的接受。向前看,机器学习和人工智能形态并影响跨学科的现代医学,包括神经外科领域。

In the emerging era of big data, larger available clinical datasets and computational advances have sparked a massive interest in machine learning-based approaches. The number of manuscripts related to machine learning or artificial intelligence has exponentially increased over the past years. As analytical machine learning tools become readily available for clinicians to use, the understanding of key concepts and the awareness of analytical pitfalls are increasingly required for clinicians, investigators, reviewers and editors, who even as experts in their clinical field, sometimes find themselves insufficiently equipped to evaluate machine learning methodologies. In the first section, we provide explanations on the general principles of machine learning, as well as analytical steps required for successful machine learning-based predictive modelling - which is the focus of this series. In further sections, we review the importance of resampling, overfitting and model generalizability as well as feature reduction and selection (Part II), strategies for model evaluation, reporting and discussion of common caveats and other points of significance (Part III), as well as offer a practical guide to classification (Part IV) and regression modelling (Part V), with a complete coding pipeline. Methodological rigor and clarity as well as understanding of the underlying reasoning of the internal workings of a machine learning approach are required, otherwise predictive applications despite being strong analytical tools are not well accepted into the clinical routine. Going forward, machine learning and artificial intelligence shape and influence modern medicine across disciplines including the field of neurosurgery.

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