论文标题
拭子在意大利受影响最大的地区建模Covid-19爆发中的作用
The role of swabs in modeling the COVID-19 outbreak in the most affected regions of Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
在爆发的一开始和疫情最关键的几周中，释放的COVID-19案件的每日波动都发挥了重要作用，当时意大利的地方当局不得不决定是否施加锁定以及在哪个水平上。公众舆论也集中在这些信息上，以了解流行病的传播速度。当传达增加/减少时，尤其是一个大型大型时，这是不容易理解的是由于流行病的进化发生了变化，还是由于其他原因而发生的波动，例如拭子数量的增加或拭子处理的延迟。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个非线性不对称扩散模型，其中包括有关拭子日常数量的信息，以描述除爆发演化的主要趋势外，还包括确认案例数量的每日波动。已经选择了扩散模型的类别来制定我们的建议，因为它还允许估算爆发结束时确认案例的总数。将所提出的模型与现有的六个模型进行了比较，其中逻辑模型和SIRD模型在最受影响的意大利区域中用作基准。
The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role both at the beginning and in the most critical weeks of the outbreak, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether to impose a lockdown and at which level. Public opinion was focused on this information as well, to understand how quickly the epidemic was spreading. When an increase/decrease was communicated, especially a large one, it was not easy to understand if it was due to a change in the epidemic evolution or if it was a fluctuation due to other reasons, such as an increase in the number of swabs or a delay in the swab processing. In this work, we propose a nonlinear asymmetric diffusion model, which includes information on the daily number of swabs, to describe daily fluctuations in the number of confirmed cases in addition to the main trend of the outbreak evolution. The class of diffusion models has been selected to develop our proposal, as it also allows estimation of the total number of confirmed cases at the end of the outbreak. The proposed model is compared to six existing models, among which the logistic and the SIRD models are used as benchmarks, in the five most affected Italian regions.
