论文标题

保留长期时空预测的动态关注

Preserving Dynamic Attention for Long-Term Spatial-Temporal Prediction

论文作者

Lin, Haoxing, Bai, Rufan, Jia, Weijia, Yang, Xinyu, You, Yongjian

论文摘要

在城市数据挖掘系统中,有效的长期预测越来越多。许多实际应用,例如预防事故和资源预分配,需要延长准备。但是,挑战是长期预测具有高度误差敏感的,这在预测具有复杂和动态的时空相关性的城市现象时变得更加至关重要。具体而言,由于有价值的相关性的数量有限,因此巨大的无关特征引入了噪音,触发预测错误增加。此外,在每个时间步骤之后,错误都会在每个将来的预测中穿越相关性并达到时空位置,从而导致明显的误差传播。为了解决这些问题,我们提出了一个动态切换注意网络(DSAN),并具有新颖的多空间注意(MSA)机制,该机制可以明确测量输入和输出之间的相关性。为了滤除无关紧要的噪声并减轻误差传播,DSAN通过对噪声输入进行自我注意力,动态提取有价值的信息,并通过实现开关主张机制直接将每个输出直接桥接到纯化的输入中。通过对两个时空预测任务进行的广泛实验,我们在短期和长期预测中证明了DSAN的优势。

Effective long-term predictions have been increasingly demanded in urban-wise data mining systems. Many practical applications, such as accident prevention and resource pre-allocation, require an extended period for preparation. However, challenges come as long-term prediction is highly error-sensitive, which becomes more critical when predicting urban-wise phenomena with complicated and dynamic spatial-temporal correlation. Specifically, since the amount of valuable correlation is limited, enormous irrelevant features introduce noises that trigger increased prediction errors. Besides, after each time step, the errors can traverse through the correlations and reach the spatial-temporal positions in every future prediction, leading to significant error propagation. To address these issues, we propose a Dynamic Switch-Attention Network (DSAN) with a novel Multi-Space Attention (MSA) mechanism that measures the correlations between inputs and outputs explicitly. To filter out irrelevant noises and alleviate the error propagation, DSAN dynamically extracts valuable information by applying self-attention over the noisy input and bridges each output directly to the purified inputs via implementing a switch-attention mechanism. Through extensive experiments on two spatial-temporal prediction tasks, we demonstrate the superior advantage of DSAN in both short-term and long-term predictions.

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