论文标题
V-,U-,L-或W形经济复苏之后:来自代理模型的见解
V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们讨论了共vid-19-示出对简单模型经济的影响,这是由先前开发的基于Mark-0代理的模型描述的。我们考虑了混合的供求冲击,并表明,根据冲击参数(振幅和持续时间),我们的模型经济可以显示V形,U形或W形的回收率,甚至具有永久输出损失的L形输出曲线。这是由于经济被困在自我维持的“不良”状态中。然后,我们讨论了两项试图减轻冲击影响的政策:给公司轻松信贷,以及所谓的直升机资金,即向家庭储蓄注入新资金。我们发现,如果足够强大,这两种政策都是有效的。我们强调了为时过早终止这些政策的潜在危险,尽管通货膨胀率通过洛杉矶国际贷款的信贷获得了大大增加。最后,我们考虑了第二次锁定的影响。虽然我们仅讨论有限的场景,但我们的模型具有灵活性和通用性,足以适应各种情况,因此是一种有用的探索性工具,可以对基于定性的,基于场景的理解后的恢复。相应的代码可在线可用。
We discuss the impact of a Covid-19--like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), our model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss. This is due to the economy getting trapped in a self-sustained "bad" state. We then discuss two policies that attempt to moderate the impact of the shock: giving easy credit to firms, and the so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into the households savings. We find that both policies are effective if strong enough. We highlight the potential danger of terminating these policies too early, although inflation is substantially increased by lax access to credit. Finally, we consider the impact of a second lockdown. While we only discuss a limited number of scenarios, our model is flexible and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of situations, thus serving as a useful exploratory tool for a qualitative, scenario-based understanding of post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code is available on-line.