论文标题
一种流行病从本地传播到全球的模型:印度Covid-19的案例研究
A model for the spread of an epidemic from local to global: A case study of COVID-19 in India
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们提出了一个流行病学模型,以供共证19的传播。差异的动力基于人群中的四个基本类别:经过测试和感染,未经测试但受感染,测试但未感染,未经测试且未感染。该模型基于种群中传播的两个级别:在地方层面和全球层面。局部水平的增长是用数据和参数描述的,这些数据和参数包括COVID-19的测试统计,预防措施(例如全国性封锁)以及人们在邻近位置的迁移。在印度的背景下,当地地点被视为地区的地区,跨地区的迁移或交通流量是由被COVID-19感染的地区的群体人口网络的标准化边缘重量定义的。基于这种局部增长,对COVID-19阳性测试的人数的州级预测进行了预测。此外,将当地地点视为各州,对国家一级进行了预测。使用网格搜索确定模型参数的值,并在使用真实数据训练模型时最小化错误函数。这些预测是根据目前的测试统计数据以及州和国家一级测试的某些线性和对数线性增长做出的。最后,可以表明,如果可以通过某些因素以及在不久的将来的预防措施来线性或对数的测试数量,则可以包含扩散。这也是防止感染计数急剧生长并摆脱第二波大流行的必要条件。
In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not infected, and non-Tested and not infected. The model is based on two levels of dynamics of spread in the population: at local level and at the global level. The local level growth is described with data and parameters which include testing statistics for COVID-19, preventive measures such as nationwide lockdown, and the migration of people across neighboring locations. In the context of India, the local locations are considered as districts and migration or traffic flow across districts are defined by normalized edge weight of the metapopulation network of districts which are infected with COVID-19. Based on this local growth, state level predictions for number of people tested with COVID-19 positive are made. Further, considering the local locations as states, prediction is made for the country level. The values of the model parameters are determined using grid search and minimizing an error function while training the model with real data. The predictions are made based on the present statistics of testing, and certain linear and log-linear growth of testing at state and country level. Finally, it is shown that the spread can be contained if number of testing can be increased linearly or log-linearly by certain factors along with the preventive measures in near future. This is also necessary to prevent the sharp growth in the count of infected and to get rid of the second wave of pandemic.