论文标题
登革热爆发的时空特征
Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks
论文作者
论文摘要
在过去的几十年中，登革热和其他媒介传播疾病在过去几十年中重新出现后，对数百万人的生命构成了潜在的威胁。基于2011年至2016年收集的巴西城市佛陀案件的数据集，我们研究了登革热爆发的时空特征，以表征流行病和非流行年份。首先，我们确定显示出在不同年内登革热病例和蚊子幼虫的高流行率的区域，并分析其相应的相关性。我们的结果表明，流行病的特征相关长度是系统规模的顺序，这表明诸如公民流动性之类的因素可能起着主要作用，可以作为媒介传播疾病的空间扩散。受到这一观察的启发，我们对基本繁殖数的平均场估计进行了均值估计，并发现我们的估计值与其他区域报告的值非常吻合，指出了相似的潜在扩散机制。这些发现提供了人们对人口稠密地区登革热的传播特征的见解，对于改善疾病遏制策略的设计应该与之相关。
After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from 2011 to 2016, we study the spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks to characterize epidemic and non-epidemic years. First, we identify regions that show a high prevalence of dengue cases and mosquito larvae in different years and also analyze their corresponding correlations. Our results show that the characteristic correlation length of the epidemic is of the order of the system size, suggesting that factors such as citizen mobility may play a major role as a drive for spatial spreading of vector-borne diseases. Inspired by this observation, we perform a mean-field estimation of the basic reproduction number and find that our estimated values agree well with the values reported for other regions, pointing towards similar underlying spreading mechanisms. These findings provide insights into the spreading characteristics of dengue in densely populated areas and should be of relevance for the design of improved disease containment strategies.
