论文标题
建模信息依赖性疫苗接种行为对脑膜炎传播的影响
Modeling the effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个数学模型，以研究信息依赖性疫苗接种行为对脑膜炎传播的影响。该信息通过信息指数表示，如（D'Onofrio等人，理论Pop。Biol。，2007年）所提出的。我们基于稳定理论进行定性分析，重点是无疾病平衡（DFE）的全球稳定性以及在DFE阈值处进行的相关跨临界分叉。最后，我们通过数值模拟评估了流行病学和信息参数在模型动力学中的作用。我们的模拟表明，人类行为的影响严重取决于平均信息延迟。例如，它可以诱导复发性流行病，前提是从载体到传染性状态的转移速率超过阈值。否则，地方性平衡至少是局部稳定的。
We propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on meningitis transmission. The information is represented by means of information index as early proposed in (d'Onofrio et al., Theor. pop. biol., 2007). We perform a qualitative analysis based on stability theory, focusing to the global stability of the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the related transcritical bifurcation taking place at the threshold for the DFE. Finally, we assess the role of epidemiological and information parameters in the model dynamics through numerical simulations. Our simulations suggests that the impact of the human behavior critically depend on the average information delay. For example, it can induce recurrent epidemics, provided that transfer rate from the carrier to the infectious state is over a threshold. Otherwise, the endemic equilibrium is (at least) locally stable.
