论文标题

贝叶斯多分辨率建模

Bayesian Multiresolution Modeling Of Georeferenced Data

论文作者

Paige, John, Fuglstad, Geir-Arne, Riebler, Andrea, Wakefield, Jon

论文摘要

当前的多解决方法的实现在可能的响应类型和推理方法方面受到限制。我们提供了一种多解析方法,用于使用潜在的高斯模型和贝叶斯通过综合嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)进行空间分析非高斯响应。该方法基于“ latticekrig”,但使用模型参数的重新聚体化,该参数是直观且可解释的,因此可以通过有关依赖性行为的不同空间量表的专家知识来指导建模和先验选择。先验可以用来使推理鲁棒和对模型参数进行集成,从而使不确定性的后验估计更准确。将扩展的Latticekrig(ELK)模型与Latticekrig(LK)和标准Matérn模型的标准实现进行了比较,我们发现在2014年肯尼亚人口统计学健康调查中收集的肯尼亚女性中学教育完成计数的麋鹿模型的空间过度平衡和预测的空间过度平衡和预测中有了适度的改进。通过具有高斯响应的模拟研究以及短规模和长度依赖性的现实组合,我们证明了这三种预测方法之间的差异随着距离到最近的观察而增加。

Current implementations of multiresolution methods are limited in terms of possible types of responses and approaches to inference. We provide a multiresolution approach for spatial analysis of non-Gaussian responses using latent Gaussian models and Bayesian inference via integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). The approach builds on `LatticeKrig', but uses a reparameterization of the model parameters that is intuitive and interpretable so that modeling and prior selection can be guided by expert knowledge about the different spatial scales at which dependence acts. The priors can be used to make inference robust and integration over model parameters allows for more accurate posterior estimates of uncertainty. The extended LatticeKrig (ELK) model is compared to a standard implementation of LatticeKrig (LK), and a standard Matérn model, and we find modest improvement in spatial oversmoothing and prediction for the ELK model for counts of secondary education completion for women in Kenya collected in the 2014 Kenya demographic health survey. Through a simulation study with Gaussian responses and a realistic mix of short and long scale dependencies, we demonstrate that the differences between the three approaches for prediction increases with distance to nearest observation.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源