论文标题
在印度对19009年大流行的建模和预测
Modeling and forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic in India
论文作者
论文摘要
背景：持续的Covid-19流行病在整个印度迅速扩张。为了结束全球共同行为的主要行为，社会疏远，接触追踪和国家干预已采取，以减少爆发并避免冠状病毒在印度和全球人类和世界范围内的持久性。在没有任何疫苗或治疗学的情况下，预测是医疗保健计划和控制Covid-19的传播的最佳优先事项。 方法：我们提出了一个数学模型，该模型解释了印度Covid-19的传播动力学。基于估计数据，我们的模型预测了流行病的演变以及SARS-COV-2和AIDS的终结，以评估不同政策控制疾病传播的影响。 调查结果：借助感染者的真实数据，我们发现印度17个州和整个印度的基本繁殖数量$ R_0 $。给出了一个完整的数字，以证明迄今为止估计的大流行生命周期以及实际数据或历史记录。我们的研究表明，在印度实施的严格控制措施大大减轻了SARS-COV-2的传播。重要的是，模型模拟预测，2020年6月26日爆发的爆发减少了95％，并在2020年7月26日在印度爆发的疫情减少了99％。 解释：我们的模型模拟表明，通过缓解社会疏远并采用基本预防措施，可以通过社区范围的消除SARS-COV-2消除。可以严格实施锁定，以防止人类对人类的传播19。基于模型的流行生命周期的基于模型的和参数估计，如果可以精确地完成结束日期，则可能会减少困扰和过度乐观，并在爆发演变的下一个阶段为我们所有人发展心态。
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and avert the persistence of the coronavirus in humans in India and worldwide. In absence of any vaccine or therapeutics, forecasting is of utmost priority for health care planning and control the transmission of COVID-19. Methods: We have proposed a mathematical model that explain the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India. Based on the estimated data our model predicts the evolution of epidemics and the end of SARS-CoV-2 and aids to evaluate the influence of different policies to control the spread of the diseases. Findings: With the real data for infected individuals, we find the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for 17 states of India and overall India. A complete figure is given to demonstrate the estimated pandemic life cycle along with the real data or history to date. Our study reveals that the strict control measures implemented in India substantially mitigated the disseminate of SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, model simulations predict that 95% reduction of outbreak on June 26, 2020 and 99% reduction of outbreak on July 26, 2020 in India. Interpretation: Our model simulation demonstrates that the community-wide elimination of SARS-CoV-2 is possible by mitigating the social distancing and use essential precautions. Lockdown can be implemented strictly to prevent the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19. The model-based and parameter estimation of epidemic life cycle, and end dates, if can be done precisely, may decrease distress and over optimism and develop the mentality for all of us for the next stages of the outbreak evolution.
