论文标题
在第二峰的高度上,并非所有干预措施都等于
Not all interventions are equal for the height of the second peak
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们对有限的空间和非空间网络模型的流行病(如Covid-19)进行了模拟研究。特别是,我们假设流行病在无标度网络上随机传播,并且网络中每个感染的人在传染时期结束后会获得暂时的免疫力。临时免疫期结束后,个体再次容易受到病毒的影响。当将基础接触网络嵌入欧几里得几何形状中时,我们对旨在控制流行病的传播的三种不同的干预策略进行了建模:社会疏远,对旅行的限制以及对每个节点最大程度的社会接触量的限制。我们的第一个发现是,在有限的网络上,足够长的平均免疫期会导致第一个峰后大流行的灭绝,类似于“牛群免疫”的概念。对于每种型号,都有一个关键的平均免疫力长度$ L_C $以上发生。我们的第二个发现是,所有三种干预措施都设法使第一个峰变平(旅行限制最有效),并降低了关键免疫长度$ L_C $,但会使流行病延长。但是,当平均免疫力长度$ l $短于$ l_c $时,平坦的第一峰的价格通常是一个很高的第二个峰值:限制最大接触次数,第二个峰值可以高达第一个峰的1/3,而两倍的峰值则是两倍,而没有干预。第三,在几乎所有情况下,干预措施将振荡引入系统,达到平衡的时间是更长的时间。我们得出的结论是,基于网络的流行病模型可以显示多种行为,这些行为未被连续的隔室模型捕获。
In this paper we conduct a simulation study of the spread of an epidemic like COVID-19 with temporary immunity on finite spatial and non-spatial network models. In particular, we assume that an epidemic spreads stochastically on a scale-free network and that each infected individual in the network gains a temporary immunity after its infectious period is over. After the temporary immunity period is over, the individual becomes susceptible to the virus again. When the underlying contact network is embedded in Euclidean geometry, we model three different intervention strategies that aim to control the spread of the epidemic: social distancing, restrictions on travel, and restrictions on maximal number of social contacts per node. Our first finding is that on a finite network, a long enough average immunity period leads to extinction of the pandemic after the first peak, analogous to the concept of "herd immunity". For each model, there is a critical average immunity length $L_c$ above which this happens. Our second finding is that all three interventions manage to flatten the first peak (the travel restrictions most efficiently), as well as decrease the critical immunity length $L_c$, but elongate the epidemic. However, when the average immunity length $L$ is shorter than $L_c$, the price for the flattened first peak is often a high second peak: for limiting the maximal number of contacts, the second peak can be as high as 1/3 of the first peak, and twice as high as it would be without intervention. Thirdly, interventions introduce oscillations into the system and the time to reach equilibrium is, for almost all scenarios, much longer. We conclude that network-based epidemic models can show a variety of behaviors that are not captured by the continuous compartmental models.