论文标题
通过流行性的重态化组框架，社会距离和边界限制的相互作用（COVID-19）
Interplay of social distancing and border restrictions for pandemics (COVID-19) via the epidemic Renormalisation Group framework
论文作者
论文摘要
我们证明，流行性的重态化群体对大流行者提供了一种有效而简单的方法来研究疾病传播和在世界各个地区的传播动态。该框架还允许对旅行限制和社会疏远措施对全球流行病的影响进行可靠的预测。我们在报告的病例上测试和校准了它，同时揭示了决定全球不同区域之间新感染病例的相对峰值延迟的机制。我们发现，社会距离措施比延迟流行高峰的边界的旅行限制更有效。我们进一步提供了与隔室模型的链接，例如简单且具有悠久的Sir样模型。我们还展示了如何概括框架以说明世界几个地区之间的相互作用，以取代或补充大规模模拟。
We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also allows for reliable projections on the impact of travel limitations and social distancing measures on global epidemic spread. We test and calibrate it on reported cases while unveiling the mechanism that governs the delay in the relative peaks of newly infected cases among different regions of the globe. We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak. We further provide the link to compartmental models such as the simplistic and time-honoured SIR-like models. We also show how to generalise the framework to account for the interactions across several regions of the world, replacing or complementing large scale simulations.
