论文标题
建模意大利的SARS-COV-2下坡和世界流行病的普遍预测
Modelling the downhill of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy and a universal forecast of the epidemic in the world
论文作者
论文摘要
在上一篇文章[1]中，我们描述了2月24日至4月1日在意大利SARS-COV-2的时间演变。正如我们在[1]中可以看到的广义逻辑方程所看到的那样，既捕获了全部感染的峰和死亡的峰。在本文中，我们的目标是研究缺失的峰值，即当前感染的峰值（或当前阳性总数）。 4月7日之后，拭子数量的大幅增加意味着感染曲线的后勤行为不再起作用。因此，我们决定概括该模型，并引入新参数。此外，我们采用了[1]中使用的类似方法（用于估计死亡），以评估回收率。通过这种方式，我们介绍了一项简单的保护法，我们定义了一个拥有4个人群的模型：全部感染，目前的阳性，恢复和死亡。因此，我们为SARS-COV-2流行的经典SIRD模型提出了一种替代方法。但是，该方法是一般的，因此适用于其他疾病。最后，我们研究了对意大利，德国和美国拭子感染的比率的行为，我们表明，在研究此参数时，我们恢复了这三个国家 /地区[1]中使用的广义逻辑模型。我们认为，这种趋势对于这种冠状病毒的未来流行可能很有用。
In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and the deaths. In this article our goal is to study the missing peak, i.e. the currently infected one (or total currently positive). After the April 7 the large increase in the number of swabs meant that the logistical behavior of the infected curve no longer worked. So we decided to generalize the model, introducing new parameters. Moreover, we adopt a similar approach used in [1] (for the estimation of deaths) in order to evaluate the recoveries. In this way, introducing a simple conservation law, we define a model with 4 populations: total infected, currently positives, recoveries and deaths. Therefore, we propose an alternative method to a classical SIRD model for the evaluation of the Sars-Cov-2 epidemic. However, the method is general and thus applicable to other diseases. Finally we study the behavior of the ratio infected over swabs for Italy, Germany and USA, and we show as studying this parameter we recover the generalized Logistic model used in [1] for these three countries. We think that this trend could be useful for a future epidemic of this coronavirus.
