论文标题
缓解措施对COVID-19在艰苦遭受的状态中扩散的影响
Effect of Mitigation Measures on the Spreading of COVID-19 in Hard-Hit States
论文作者
论文摘要
州政府规定的社会疏远措施有助于减慢美国19日大流行的增长。 Covid-19的最新预测模型，尤其是在缓解工作之后，主要基于推断来自其他国家的数据。由于大多数州在3月底执行了全职命令，因此应在4月底的死亡和感染计数中反映其作用。使用可用的数据到4月25日，我们研究了由于缓解工作而导致的感染率变化，并且针对某些受影响最严重的州进行了预测，直到2020年9月，纽约，新泽西州，密歇根州，马萨诸塞州，马萨诸塞州，伊利诺伊州和路易斯安那州。我们发现，随着当前的缓解工作，这六个州中的五个州将其繁殖数量减少到小于一个的价值，从而阻止了大流行的指数增长。缓解措施放松后，我们还预测了不同的情况。可以在https://covid19proctivection.org/上找到其他状态的分析。
State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are largely based on extrapolating the data from other countries. Since most states enforced stay-at-home orders towards the end of March, their effect should be reflected in the death and infection counts at the end of April. Using the data available until April 25th, we investigate the change in the infection rate due to the mitigation efforts, and project death and infection counts until September, 2020, for some of the most heavily impacted states: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois and Louisiana. We find that with the current mitigation efforts five of those six states reduce their reproduction number to a value less than one, stopping the exponential growth of the pandemic. We also projected different scenarios after the mitigation is relaxed. Analysis for other states can be found at https://covid19projection.org/.
