论文标题
1920年5月1日
Short-term forecasts of COVID-19 spread across Indian states until 1 May 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
电晕病毒疾病的第一个病例于2020年1月30日在印度记录，其中包括死亡人数在内的被感染案件的数量继续增加。在本文中，我们使用从2020年1月30日至4月21日的实时数据进行了Covid-19的28个州和五个联盟领土的短期预测。应用Holt的二阶指数平滑方法和自动性综合运动平均值（ARIMA）模型，我们将在印度案件和5月22日的案例中生成10天的预测，该案例可能会在4月22日生成2020年的案例，该案例是220年4月22日，该案例均为1.220群体，该案例是1月22日的2020年。到2020年5月1日，将上升至36335.63 [PI 95％（30884.56，42918.87）]，同时死亡人数可能会增加到1099.38 [PI 95％（959.77，1553.76）]。根据这项分析，马哈拉施特拉邦可能是受影响最大的州，约9787.24 [PI 95％（6949.81，13757.06）]到2020年5月1日，累积病例。但是，喀拉拉邦和卡纳塔克邦可能会从红色区域转移到红色区域（即受影响的受影响较小的地区）。另一方面，古吉拉特邦和中央邦将移至红色区域。这些结果标志着锁定到2020年5月3日可以放松的状态。
The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020, in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28 Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January to 21 April 2020. Applying Holt's second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generate 10-day ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India for 22 April to 1 May 2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in India will rise to 36335.63 [PI 95% (30884.56, 42918.87)], concurrently the number of deaths may increase to 1099.38 [PI 95% (959.77, 1553.76)] by 1 May 2020. Further, we have divided the country into severity zones based on the cumulative cases. According to this analysis, Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected states with around 9787.24 [PI 95% (6949.81, 13757.06)] cumulative cases by 1 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to shift from the red zone (i.e. highly affected) to the lesser affected region. On the other hand, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh will move to the red zone. These results mark the states where lockdown by 3 May 2020, can be loosened.
