论文标题
千禧一代，婴儿胸围和住房市场
The Millennial Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market
论文作者
论文摘要
随着婴儿潮一代开始缩小和退休，他们的喜好现在与千禧一代对城市设施和较小的生活空间的偏爱重叠。美国人口的两个最大年龄段之间的口味融合已经有意义地改变了美国房价的发展。 Utilizing a Bartik shift-share instrument for demography-driven demand shocks, we show that from 2000 to 2018 (i) the price growth of four- and five-bedroom houses has lagged the prices of one- and two-bedroom homes, (ii) within local labor markets, the relative home prices in baby boomer-rich zip codes have declined compared with millennial-rich neighborhoods, and (iii) the zip codes with the largest relative share of smaller房屋种植最快。在最新的经济周期中，这些模式变得更加明显。我们表明，这些影响集中在住房供应最无弹性的地区。如果住房市场中的这种模式持续或扩大，则大约16.5万亿美元的房地产财富由55岁或以上的家庭领导的家庭持有，将受到重大影响。我们几乎没有证据表明这些即将发生的变化已纳入当前价格。
As baby boomers have begun to downsize and retire, their preferences now overlap with millennials' predilection for urban amenities and smaller living spaces. This confluence in tastes between the two largest age segments of the U.S. population has meaningfully changed the evolution of home prices in the United States. Utilizing a Bartik shift-share instrument for demography-driven demand shocks, we show that from 2000 to 2018 (i) the price growth of four- and five-bedroom houses has lagged the prices of one- and two-bedroom homes, (ii) within local labor markets, the relative home prices in baby boomer-rich zip codes have declined compared with millennial-rich neighborhoods, and (iii) the zip codes with the largest relative share of smaller homes have grown fastest. These patterns have become more pronounced during the latest economic cycle. We show that the effects are concentrated in areas where housing supply is most inelastic. If this pattern in the housing market persists or expands, the approximately 16.5 trillion in real estate wealth held by households headed by those aged 55 or older will be significantly affected. We find little evidence that these upcoming changes have been incorporated into current prices.
