论文标题
逻辑近似用于描述2020年Covid-19大流行中的新暴发
Logistic approximations used to describe new outbreaks in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项调查中，我使用Logistic模型适合某些国家的Covid-19-19大流行数据。以中国，伊朗，意大利，韩国，西班牙和美国的死亡人数为模型。考虑到当前大流行的增长率，可以表明，中国的死亡人数应在3,277-3,327人死亡之间，伊朗为2,035-2,107，在韩国为120-134，在意大利为11,227-12,793，在意大利和6,217-7,405。另外，通过这种玩具模式，有可能在同一国家（伊朗，中国和美国）明显出现新爆发。韩国发现的死亡人数的增长率是所研究国家中最低的（0.14701 \ pm0.00923 $）和中国（0.16667 \ pm0.00284 $）。意大利（$ 0.22594 \ pm0.00599 $）和西班牙（$ 0.31213 \ pm0.02337 $）的利率最高，在伊朗的第二波中（$ 0.37893 \ pm0.02712 $）。
In this investigation I used the Logistic Model to fit the COVID-19 pandemic data for some countries. The data modeled is the death numbers per day in China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Spain and United States. Considering the current growth rate of the pandemic, it was possible to show that the death toll should be between 3,277-3,327 deaths in China, 2,035-2,107 in Iran, 120-134 in South Korea, 11,227-12,793 in Italy and 6,217-7,405 in Spain. Also, with this toy model it was possible to show a clear emergence of a new outbreak within the same country (Iran, China and the United States). The growth rate of deaths found for South Korea was the lowest among the countries studied ($0.14701\pm0.00923$) and for China ($0.16667\pm0.00284$). Italy ($0.22594\pm0.00599$) and Spain ($0.31213\pm0.02337$) had the highest rates and in the second wave in Iran ($0.37893\pm0.02712$).
