论文标题

电子健康记录的自适应预测时间

Adaptive Prediction Timing for Electronic Health Records

论文作者

Deasy, Jacob, Ercole, Ari, Liò, Pietro

论文摘要

在现实的情况下,多元时间表随着逐案的时间表而发展。这在医学中尤其清楚,在医学上,临床事件发生率随病房,患者和应用而变化。越来越复杂的模型已被证明可以有效预测患者的预后,但未能适应这些固有的时间分辨率。因此,我们介绍了一种基于贝叶斯复发模型中不确定性积累的自适应率,以自适应率产生患者预测预测的一种新颖,更现实的方法。我们使用具有新的聚合方法的复发性神经网络(RNN)和贝叶斯嵌入层来证明自适应预测时间。当事件密集或模型确定事件潜在表示时,我们的模型会更频繁地预测,当读数稀疏或模型不确定时,较少的频率。在入院后48小时,与静态窗口相比,我们的模型在同时产生了患者和事件特定的预测时间,从而在患者住院的前12个小时内提高了预测性能。

In realistic scenarios, multivariate timeseries evolve over case-by-case time-scales. This is particularly clear in medicine, where the rate of clinical events varies by ward, patient, and application. Increasingly complex models have been shown to effectively predict patient outcomes, but have failed to adapt granularity to these inherent temporal resolutions. As such, we introduce a novel, more realistic, approach to generating patient outcome predictions at an adaptive rate based on uncertainty accumulation in Bayesian recurrent models. We use a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a Bayesian embedding layer with a new aggregation method to demonstrate adaptive prediction timing. Our model predicts more frequently when events are dense or the model is certain of event latent representations, and less frequently when readings are sparse or the model is uncertain. At 48 hours after patient admission, our model achieves equal performance compared to its static-windowed counterparts, while generating patient- and event-specific prediction timings that lead to improved predictive performance over the crucial first 12 hours of the patient stay.

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