论文标题
设计一个奖励 - 麦卢斯系统,以反映因频率模型下的索赔规模
Designing a Bonus-Malus system reflecting the claim size under the dependent frequency-severity model
论文作者
论文摘要
在汽车保险中,奖金 - 麦卢斯系统(BMS)通常用作后验风险分类机制,以根据保单持有人的索赔历史记录为下一个合同期设置溢价。尽管最近的文献报告了频率和严重性之间有显着依赖性的证据,但当前的BMS实践是使用基于频率的过渡规则,同时忽略严重性信息。虽然OH等人。 (2019年)声称,频率驱动的BMS过渡规则可以适应频率和严重程度之间的依赖性,其提议只是一个部分解决方案,因为过渡规则仍然完全忽略了索赔的严重性,并且无法惩罚大型索赔。在这项研究中,我们建议基于双变量随机效应模型,根据索赔的频率和规模使用具有过渡规则的BMS,该模型可以方便地依赖频率和严重性之间的依赖性。我们通过分析得出提出的BMS框架下的最佳相关性,并表明所提出的BMS优于现有的频率驱动的BMS。还使用假设和实际数据集提供了后来的数值实验,以评估各种依赖性对BMS风险分类的影响并确认我们的理论发现。
In auto insurance, a Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is commonly used as a posteriori risk classification mechanism to set the premium for the next contract period based on a policyholder's claim history. Even though recent literature reports evidence of a significant dependence between frequency and severity, the current BMS practice is to use a frequency-based transition rule while ignoring severity information. Although Oh et al. (2019) claim that the frequency-driven BMS transition rule can accommodate the dependence between frequency and severity, their proposal is only a partial solution, as the transition rule still completely ignores the claim severity and is unable to penalize large claims. In this study, we propose to use the BMS with a transition rule based on both frequency and size of claim, based on the bivariate random effect model, which conveniently allows dependence between frequency and severity. We analytically derive the optimal relativities under the proposed BMS framework and show that the proposed BMS outperforms the existing frequency-driven BMS. Later numerical experiments are also provided using both hypothetical and actual datasets in order to assess the effect of various dependencies on the BMS risk classification and confirm our theoretical findings.