论文标题

通过复发性神经网络对具有未知参数的动力学系统的无模型模拟的变异推理公式

Variational inference formulation for a model-free simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters by a recurrent neural network

论文作者

Yeo, Kyongmin, Grullon, Dylan E. C., Sun, Fan-Keng, Boning, Duane S., Kalagnanam, Jayant R.

论文摘要

我们提出了一个复发性神经网络,用于对具有未知参数的动态系统的“无模型”模拟而没有事先知识。深度学习模型旨在共同学习非线性时间进行操作员以及时间序列数据集中未知参数的影响。我们假设时间序列数据集由用于一系列参数的轨迹集合组成。通过将未知参数视为随机变量,将学习任务作为统计推断问题提出。引入了一个潜在变量来对未知参数的效果进行建模,并采用了一种变异推理方法来同时训练时间行进运算符的概率模型,并且潜在变量的后验分布近似。与经典的变异推断(使用分解分布用于近似后部)不同,我们采用了由编码器复发神经网络补充的前馈神经网络来开发更灵活的概率模型。近似后验分布对轨迹进行了推断,以识别未知参数的影响。经过的算子通过复发性神经网络近似,该神经网络将其从近似后验分布作为输入变量之一采样,以计算在潜在变量上调节的概率分布的时间演化。在数值实验中,与标准复发性神经网络相比,所提出的变分推断模型可以更准确地模拟。发现所提出的深度学习模型能够正确识别随机参数的维度并学习复杂时间序列数据的表示。

We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of the unknown parameters from a time series dataset. We assume that the time series data set consists of an ensemble of trajectories for a range of the parameters. The learning task is formulated as a statistical inference problem by considering the unknown parameters as random variables. A latent variable is introduced to model the effects of the unknown parameters, and a variational inference method is employed to simultaneously train probabilistic models for the time marching operator and an approximate posterior distribution for the latent variable. Unlike the classical variational inference, where a factorized distribution is used to approximate the posterior, we employ a feedforward neural network supplemented by an encoder recurrent neural network to develop a more flexible probabilistic model. The approximate posterior distribution makes an inference on a trajectory to identify the effects of the unknown parameters. The time marching operator is approximated by a recurrent neural network, which takes a latent state sampled from the approximate posterior distribution as one of the input variables, to compute the time evolution of the probability distribution conditioned on the latent variable. In the numerical experiments, it is shown that the proposed variational inference model makes a more accurate simulation compared to the standard recurrent neural networks. It is found that the proposed deep learning model is capable of correctly identifying the dimensions of the random parameters and learning a representation of complex time series data.

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