论文标题
阿尔茨海默氏病的纵向进化预测(Tadpole)挑战:一年后的结果后结果
The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了“阿尔茨海默氏病预测纵向进化的预测”(t)挑战的结果,该挑战比较了33个国际团队中92个算法的表现,以预测219名患有阿尔茨海默氏病风险的人的未来轨迹。挑战参与者必须在未来5年期间的每个月进行三个关键结果进行预测:临床诊断,阿尔茨海默氏病评估量表认知子域(ADAS-COG13)和心室的总数。挑战参与者使用的方法包括多元线性回归,机器学习方法,例如支持向量机和深神经网络以及疾病进展模型。没有一个提交最好的提交来预测所有三个结果。为了临床诊断和心室体积预测,最佳算法在预测能力上的表现强大。但是,对于ADAS-COG13,没有一个提交的预测方法比随机猜测要好得多。两种基于在所有预测上采用平均值和中位数的合奏方法,几乎所有任务都获得了最高分数。通常,诊断预测时的表现要好于平均表现,通常与脑脊液(CSF)样品和扩散张量成像(DTI)的额外包含有关。另一方面,在心室体积预测方面的表现更好与包含摘要统计数据有关,例如生物标志物的斜率或最大/最小值。 Tadpole的独特结果表明,当前的预测算法提供了足够的准确性来利用与临床诊断和心室体积相关的生物标志物,以在阿尔茨海默氏病的临床试验中进行研究。但是,结果质疑患者选择的认知测试评分的使用情况,也是临床试验中的主要终点。
We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.