论文标题

与卷积神经网络预测时间序列的错误反馈随机建模策略

Error-feedback stochastic modeling strategy for time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks

论文作者

Zhang, Xinze, He, Kun, Bao, Yukun

论文摘要

尽管在时间序列建模和预测中证明了卷积神经网络的优越性,但尚未在神经网络架构的设计和超参数的调整上进行全面探索。受到构建随机多层感知器的增量构建策略的启发,我们提出了一种新颖的错误反馈随机建模(ESM)策略,以构建时间序列预测任务的随机卷积神经网络(ESM-CNN),以适应网络架构。 ESM策略表明,错误馈回完全连接层的随机过滤器和神经元会逐步添加以稳步补偿施工过程中的预测错误,然后引入了滤波器选择策略以使ESM-CNN能够提取时间的不同大小,从而在每个迭代过程中为预测提供了有用的信息。 ESM-CNN的性能是合理的,其预测的准确性分别是预测和多步预测任务。对合成数据集和现实世界数据集进行的全面实验表明,所提出的ESM-CNN不仅比最先进的随机神经网络胜过,而且还表现出更强的预测能力和较少的计算开销,而不是训练有素的先进的深层神经网络模型。

Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired by the incremental construction strategy for building a random multilayer perceptron, we propose a novel Error-feedback Stochastic Modeling (ESM) strategy to construct a random Convolutional Neural Network (ESM-CNN) for time series forecasting task, which builds the network architecture adaptively. The ESM strategy suggests that random filters and neurons of the error-feedback fully connected layer are incrementally added to steadily compensate the prediction error during the construction process, and then a filter selection strategy is introduced to enable ESM-CNN to extract the different size of temporal features, providing helpful information at each iterative process for the prediction. The performance of ESM-CNN is justified on its prediction accuracy of one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead forecasting tasks respectively. Comprehensive experiments on both the synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed ESM-CNN not only outperforms the state-of-art random neural networks, but also exhibits stronger predictive power and less computing overhead in comparison to trained state-of-art deep neural network models.

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