论文标题
通过审查的高斯流程来估计共享流动性的潜在需求
Estimating Latent Demand of Shared Mobility through Censored Gaussian Processes
论文作者
论文摘要
运输需求高度取决于供应,尤其是在供应通常受到限制的共享运输服务方面。由于观察到的需求不能高于可用的供应,因此历史传输数据通常代表真正的潜在需求模式的有偏见或审查的版本。如果不明确考虑这种固有的区别,需求的预测模型必然代表了真实需求的有偏见,从而较少有效地预测服务用户的需求。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种通用方法,用于审查意识到的需求建模,为此我们设计了一个审查的似然函数。我们将此方法应用于共享移动性需求预测的任务,通过将审查的可能性纳入高斯过程模型中,该过程可以灵活地近似于任意功能形式。对人工和现实世界数据集进行的实验表明,在获得用户需求行为的无偏见的预测模型的过程中,必须考虑到供求的限制效果是至关重要的。
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly accounting for this inherent distinction, predictive models of demand would necessarily represent a biased version of true demand, thus less effectively predicting the needs of service users. To counter this problem, we propose a general method for censorship-aware demand modeling, for which we devise a censored likelihood function. We apply this method to the task of shared mobility demand prediction by incorporating the censored likelihood within a Gaussian Process model, which can flexibly approximate arbitrary functional forms. Experiments on artificial and real-world datasets show how taking into account the limiting effect of supply on demand is essential in the process of obtaining an unbiased predictive model of user demand behavior.