论文标题

在离散选择中测试无关替代方案独立性的基本限制

Fundamental Limits of Testing the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives in Discrete Choice

论文作者

Seshadri, Arjun, Ugander, Johan

论文摘要

多项式logit(MNL)模型及其满足的公理,无关替代的独立性(IIA)是最广泛使用的离散选择工具。 MNL模型是各种领域的主力模型,但也受到了广泛的批评,大量的实验文献声称可以记录IIA未能保持的现实世界中的现实环境。在过去的几十年中,IIA作为建模假设的统计检验一直是许多实践测试的主题,这些测试侧重于与IIA的特定偏差,但是假设检验IIA的正式大小属性仍然不太了解。在这项工作中,我们用严格的悲观情绪替换了本文中的一些歧义,这表明对较低案例错误的IIA进行的任何一般测试都需要在选择问题的替代方案数量中进行许多样本指数。我们对先前工作的分析的一个主要好处是它完全在于有限样本域,这对于理解离散选择的常见数据贫困设置中的测试行为至关重要。我们的下限是依赖结构的,作为乐观的潜在原因,我们发现,如果人们将IIA的测试限制为可能发生在特定选择集(例如,对)中可能发生的违规行为,那么人们就会获得与结构相关的下限,而这些限制的不那么悲观。我们对这个测试问题的分析是非正统的,在高度组合方面,计算了由数据集构建的特定两部分图的循环分解方向。通过确定给定测试问题的比较结构与样本效率之间的基本关系,我们希望这些关系将有助于对IIA测试问题进行严格重新思考以及离散选择中的其他测试问题奠定基础。

The Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and the axiom it satisfies, the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA), are together the most widely used tools of discrete choice. The MNL model serves as the workhorse model for a variety of fields, but is also widely criticized, with a large body of experimental literature claiming to document real-world settings where IIA fails to hold. Statistical tests of IIA as a modelling assumption have been the subject of many practical tests focusing on specific deviations from IIA over the past several decades, but the formal size properties of hypothesis testing IIA are still not well understood. In this work we replace some of the ambiguity in this literature with rigorous pessimism, demonstrating that any general test for IIA with low worst-case error would require a number of samples exponential in the number of alternatives of the choice problem. A major benefit of our analysis over previous work is that it lies entirely in the finite-sample domain, a feature crucial to understanding the behavior of tests in the common data-poor settings of discrete choice. Our lower bounds are structure-dependent, and as a potential cause for optimism, we find that if one restricts the test of IIA to violations that can occur in a specific collection of choice sets (e.g., pairs), one obtains structure-dependent lower bounds that are much less pessimistic. Our analysis of this testing problem is unorthodox in being highly combinatorial, counting Eulerian orientations of cycle decompositions of a particular bipartite graph constructed from a data set of choices. By identifying fundamental relationships between the comparison structure of a given testing problem and its sample efficiency, we hope these relationships will help lay the groundwork for a rigorous rethinking of the IIA testing problem as well as other testing problems in discrete choice.

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